A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
